Real Estate Stats & Trends

Updates on Real Estate Investing statistics and trends in the United States.

Real Estate Opportunities post Covid

Mitigating risk and seizing opportunities in a volatile market

As we continue to monitor the rapidly changing landscape, Aloha is implementing prudent changes to protect our fund investors and borrowers. We feel these changes provide both groups with the best opportunity for success going forward. Most significantly, we paused lending for 45 days while we surveyed the new environment. As a result of the lending pause, the cash position of the fund increased, which decreases risk and volatility. We… 

Homebuilder bullishness underscores the positive outlook for residential housing in 2020

With every new year, those of us in real estate and other businesses look into our crystal ball to try to assess what lies ahead. And as we assess the outlook for housing in 2020, we should note that one group is unusually bullish – homebuilders.  According to the December NAHB/Well Fargo Housing Market Index, homebuilder confidence was at its highest point since June of 1999. With a low supply of… 

The Fix and Flip Business is Increasingly Competitive; but Enterprising Flippers are Still Making Good Profits

It’s getting increasingly difficult to turn a profit in the house flipping business these days. At least that’s the story making the rounds in the press recently. Some of the reasons given: home prices are high, there are fewer distressed or foreclosed properties available to buy inexpensively, and the competition among investors is substantial. There is also the suggestion that the increasingly competitive fix and flip-it business is a sign… 

U.S. Mortgage Debt surpasses level hit in 2008 during the financial crisis. But homeowners’ debt picture looks much better this time around

In the third quarter of 2008, U.S. mortgage debt hit a record $9.294 trillion. That extreme marked the end of the housing boom and the beginning of the Great Recession. So, when we hear that U.S mortgage debt has recently surpassed its 2008 peak, it might raise concerns. But this time around, the homeowners’ debt picture is much better. Mortgage balances have indeed surpassed the peak set 11 years ago… 

Foreign buying of US real estate slows over the intermediate term

This month, given the recent, constant barrage of international news in the press, we decided to relate the issue of US real estate markets to foreign interests and sales stats. As you’ll see-these foreign investors have been pulling back substantially in their buying of houses here at home over the past couple of years–and to a surprising degree. Please note that this letter is expressly not intended to be a… 

Drop in mortgage rates continues to propel the housing market

Just last December, many economists were sounding loud and consistent alarm bells that interest rates were poised to rise (potentially rapidly) in 2019, and that the peak in U.S. home prices had been hit. As of summer 2019, it looks like the experts were wrong on both counts. Since touching 5% in late October, the 30-year mortgage rate has dropped to 3.84%, its lowest level since September 13, 2017. Meanwhile,… 

Home Builders may finally be targeting the under-served middle market

Last summer, a middle school teacher and her husband spent several months trying to buy a home in Denver, only to be repeatedly outbid by fellow house hunters. The Colorado natives were trying to move back to the neighborhood where they grew up, after living in San Jose, California for three years. Turned out the housing market in Denver wasn’t much more affordable than San Jose. “We started in December,”… 

The top indicator for assessing value in real estate markets

These days there’s a lot of good data on residential real estate markets. Here are examples of a few of the metrics than can be helpful to keep tabs on:  Days on Market Median sale price % of homes that sold above list price % of homes that had a price drop Inventory (number of homes on the market) New listings Months of supply Number of homes sold But if… 

Does yield curve inversion predict tough times ahead for housing?

Last week, the yield on 3-month treasuries dipped below the yield on 10-year treasuries. The last time this “yield inversion” happened was late 2007, and it preceded the worst U.S. recession – and the worst housing market — in a generation. Is history repeating itself? Statistically speaking, it’s pretty unlikely. And while an inverted yield curve has a good track record for predicting recessions, the implications for the housing market… 

Seniors aging in place could keep housing inventory tight well into the future

We are into the eighth year of the real estate bull market. A strong economy, low interest rates and favorable demographics are among the factors behind the expansion. But the bottom-line reason for the real estate expansion: there simply aren’t enough houses for sale. As we’ve written about previously, this shortage is a big reason young adults (millennials) are not buying homes at the rate of previous generations. For millennials…